The moment of truth is approaching in Syria. In an interview with the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, published on December 17, Syria’s vice president, Farouq al-Shara, admitted for the first time that the war against the Syrian rebels could not be won: “I do not believe that what the security forces and the army units are doing will achieve a decisive victory.”

The rebel forces, led by allied jihadist groups, have the upper hand on the battlefield, and scored significant achievements when they took over a large military base in Aleppo well stocked with weapons and ammunition,¹and later in fierce fighting in communities surrounding the capital city of Damascus including the Yarmouk Palstinian refugee camp. The Free Syrian Army is now claiming to have gained control of most of the air defense bases in the Damascus Governate.²

Bashar Assad’s regime is fighting a rearguard battle and has already lost control over large parts of the country, which are still being subjected to aerial and artillery attacks by Syrian army forces still loyal to the regime.³ Assad continues to draw his strength from the Alawite community, which forms the backbone of the army, and from the political, military, and economic assistance he receives from Russia, Syria, Iran, and Hizbullah. The latter two have also sent forces to help with the fighting both in advisory and operational capacities.

The sense that the end is approaching was expressed by Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who acknowledged that Assad’s regime is losing control of the country and a rebel takeover may be imminent. While Russia has not changed its policy on the official level, it too appears prepared to safeguard its interests should the regime collapse.

A political turning point occurred when the United States recognized the Syrian National Coalition as the sole and exclusive representative of the Syrian people. The U.S. and other Western countries, as well as the bloc of Arab and Muslim states that support the rebels, have an interest in building up a national leadership that can unite the rebel forces under its command and serve as a legitimate temporary government, thereby ensuring a stable transition period and the continued geographic and governmental coherence of Syria.

Read the rest of this paper at the JCPA.