BICOM

Key Issues

• The coming month will see significant diplomatic activity with regard to the Middle East, with an important IAEA board meeting, the annual UN General Assembly, and a G20 meeting in Pittsburgh.  
• The Obama Administration has from the outset made clear its determination to play a pro-active role in the Middle East. After a series of uncertain steps, it now appears that the administration’s agenda for the region is moving into high gear.   
• The challenges in finding a comprehensive solution to the core issues behind Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and the Syrian regime are considerable. They are further complicated by Iranian support for Palestinian radicals, and by the Syrian strategic alliance with Iran. Overshadowing all these is the Iranian nuclear issue. 
• The administration hopes to hold a tripartite summit bringing together Prime Minister Netanyahu and PA President Abbas at the UN General Assembly. The other key issue which the US will engage with this month is the Iranian nuclear issue. If Iran fails to respond adequately to US offers on engagement ahead of the G20, it is possible that the gathering will witness an attempt to agree increased sanctions against Iran.  
• The US approach reflects a view that the various components of conflict in the region are mutually supporting,[i] and that progress on one front will assist progress on the others. That approach will be tested in the weeks ahead.

Introduction

The coming month is expected to witness a major effort by the Obama administration and key regional players to make diplomatic progress on major issues of regional contention.  The key issues are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the role of the wider Arab world, and the Iranian nuclear issue. The Obama administration has from the outset made clear its determination to play a pro-active role in the Middle East. Its goals include repairing US relations with the Arab world, moving toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, and preventing a nuclear Iran.  After a series of uncertain steps, it now appears that the administration’s focus on the region is moving into high gear. The US approach reflects a view that the various components of conflict in the region are mutually supporting. Progress on any one front will assist progress on the others. This document will preview forthcoming events and assess the prospects for development in the weeks ahead.

What is taking place in September? 

The first important international gathering is the meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is due to take place in Vienna on 8-12 September. Israel hopes this meeting will focus attention on the IAEA’s evidence suggesting ‘military dimensions’ within the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has persistently failed to respond to the IAEA’s demands that it explain this evidence.  

Then the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting will take place in the in the second half of September. A special UN Security Council meeting on the issue of nuclear proliferation is due to take place at the GA meeting. Obama is due to address the GA on 23 September, as is President Ahmedinejad of Iran.

The event is also expected to form a central venue for the US diplomatic effort on the Israeli-Palestinain peace process. It is hoped that a tripartite summit between Prime Minister Netanyahu, PA Chairman Abbas, and President Obama will take place.[ii] It is not yet clear however, if such a summit will go ahead. At present, the PA is still demanding a complete settlement freeze before Abbas will agree to meet with Netanyahu.

Concurrent with the General Assembly meeting, the G20 summit of the world’s 20 most industrialised nations will take place in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on September 24-25. The summit is due to discuss the global economic situation.  However, President Obama said at the G8 in June that the G20 is the point at which ‘we will take stock of Iran’s progress’ in responding to US offers of engagement. The US and key European powers may use the framework of the summit to advance a series of new measures against Iran over its nuclear programme.

Reviving Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy

The Obama Administration has placed great focus on the settlement issue and securing a settlement freeze in its first few months. It now looks like a compromise formula on this matter is close to being achieved. According to press reports, Israel may agree to a nine to twelve month settlement freeze in the West Bank, not including East Jerusalem. Such a freeze would allow for the completion of projects currently under construction. Netanyahu’s Adviser Yitzhak Molcho and senior official Mike Herzog are due in Washington this week to continue discussions on this issue with US envoy George Mitchell.[iii] Steps that Arab states will take towards normalisation to reciprocate an Israeli settlement freeze are also part of the discussions. The Palestinian Authority has made it clear that an open-ended moratorium on construction in settlements and in East Jerusalem is a prerequisite for a meeting between Abbas and Netanyahu, and for the recommencement of negotiations.  It is not yet clear if a compromise of the type mentioned above would be sufficient in Palestinian eyes.[iv]  

Should the US administration manage to bring about a resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks, the next challenge will be determine what form the talks will then take, and how to address the substantial gaps between the two sides on how to move forward. The coming month is likely to witness a significant effort to address these issues.

Building a firm international stance on Iran

The Obama Administration on taking office sought to establish renewed dialogue with the Iranian regime. The repression that followed the Iranian presidential elections in June has severely complicated this effort. In the aftermath of this repression, a more militant and extreme Iranian government has emerged which is determined to hold on to power and is prepared to take extremely repressive measures to do so. The regime appears not to be in danger whilst its security forces remain loyal and the opposition movement lacks organisation and unity.

An IAEA report issued on August 28 accused Iran of failing to explain evidence presented to the Agency, which suggested that Iran has tried to develop nuclear weapons capability. Israeli officials fear that the Iranian regime will not openly reject Obama’s offer of dialogue. Rather, the regime will seek to continue its long standing policy of obfuscation and buying time, behind a professed readiness for talks.  The issue in September will be how the administration chooses to respond to this probable turn of events. It is likely that the issue of firmer sanctions will come onto the agenda in the course of the month. Potential measures include an embargo on fuels and refined oil products to Iran as well as sanctions which target Iran’s energy industry  and limit international commercial activity of Iranian banks and companies.

Officials from the ‘P5+1’ states (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) are due to meet this week to discuss the issue.[v] Constructing a properly calibrated international policy on Iran will not be easy. In particular, ensuring Russian and Chinese support for renewed sanctions, while at the same time making sure that such sanctions do not in the process become rendered ineffectual, will be a central challenge that lies ahead. 

The effort to build support for tougher sanctions against Iran dominated Prime Minister  Netanyahu’s recent discussions with European leaders. Britain and France have led efforts within the EU to rally support for tougher sanctions. In the last few days German Chancellor Angela Merkel has talked up Germany’s commitment for harsher measures including with regard to the energy sector.[vi]

The Syrian track

Whilst not billed as a central feature of the diplomatic agenda for September, a final element which should not be ignored is the Syrian track. The recent upsurge in violence in Iraq, which the Iraqi government blames on Ba’athists operating from Syria, has underlined the disruptive role Syria can play.  Stabilising Iraq and withdrawing US troops is very high priority for Obama. US-Syria contacts have been ongoing since Obama took office. However, the administration has been firm in refusing to lift sanctions on Damascus in the absence of real moves on Syria’s part toward securing its border with Iraq.  As of now, Damascus has shown no signs of a willingness to consider breaking its strategic alliance with Iran.  Nevertheless, US efforts at dialogue are likely to continue, and to form part of the attempt to create momentum for their regional agenda in the month ahead.

Conclusion

The challenges facing the effort to find a comprehensive solution to the core issues behind Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and the Syrian regime are considerable. They are further complicated by Iranian support for Palestinian radicals, and by the Syrian strategic alliance with Iran. Overshadowing all these is the Iranian nuclear issue. The potential risk of linking issues together, as the US has done, is that setbacks in one field could detract from efforts in other areas. This is one of the pitfalls the US will be hoping to avoid this month, as it tries to move forward with its ambitious regional agenda.

 

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[i] See BICOM Focus: Netanyahu’s search for consensus in Washington, 18 May 2009

[ii] ‘Peres: Obama to mediate Abbas-PM talks’, 31 August 2009, Jerusalem Post

[iii] ‘Middle East update’, Foreign Policy, 28 August 2009. 

[iv] ‘No talks without full settlement freeze – Abbas aide,”  Reuters, 31 August 2009.  Reuters.com

[v] ‘Germany France reinforce Iran sanctions threat’, 31 August 2009, Associated Press

[vi] Op Cit. iv.