BICOM

Key Points

• Benjamin Netanyahu met on Monday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to brief him ahead of indirect Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations expected to commence this week.
• A number of recent incidents have exposed differences between Israel and Egypt, including Egypt’s stance with regard to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
• However, the growing tension between Egypt and Hamas, and the regular visits of senior Israeli leaders to Cairo, are testimony to strong underlying common interests.
• Both Egypt and Israel seek regional peace and security and to strengthen a moderate, stable Middle East at the expense of militant groups and hostile, anti-Western forces.

Introduction

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew on Monday to Sharm el-Sheikh to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ahead of US-mediated indirect peace negotiations expected to commence shortly. Netanyahu has expressed appreciation for the constructive role Mubarak is playing in trying to jumpstart the Middle East peace process. In other areas, however, including in relation to nuclear non-proliferation, recent Egyptian positions on regional security issues have diverged from those of Israel. This document looks at the latest developments in the context of Egypt’s broader geopolitical concerns and its shared interests with Israel.

Cairo‘s current concerns

A few weeks ago Israel and Egypt marked the 31st anniversary of the signing of the peace treaty between the Jewish state and its most powerful Arab neighbour. Whilst often derided as a “cold peace”, both countries derive economic and political benefits through their relations. However, Egypt, whose general population remains deeply hostile to Israel, has long seen the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an impediment to developing deeper bilateral ties. Today it is more impatient than in the past for progress. Egyptian diplomats are keen to contain the threat from Hamas. After Hamas’s consistent refusal to sign the Egyptian brokered Palestinian unity deal, Egypt wants a find a way to move the peace process forward.

Hamas’s control of the Gaza Strip is a major concern for Egypt. Referring to the Hamas regime, Mubarak has in the past commented that “The situation that has developed in the Gaza Strip…has led to Egypt in practice having a border with Iran.” The Philadelphi corridor along Egypt’s border with Gaza has been a frequent flashpoint in recent years. The Ma’an Palestinian news agency reported over the weekend that Egypt has declared a state of emergency along the corridor, after uncovering a planned break out by Palestinians into Sinai to protest “the Gaza siege” and to demand the opening of the Egyptian side of the border. Tensions with Hamas have grown since four Palestinians were killed last week, when Egyptian forces detonated a tunnel typically used for smuggling goods and weapons into Gaza. Egypt has clamped down on this activity, and Cairo blames Hamas for Gaza’s ongoing isolation. The deputy editor of the official Egyptian daily Al-Ahram writes that “[Hamas] has and continues to suffocate its own fellow people by means of its actions and by means of its refusal to sign the reconciliation agreement with Fatah.”

Egypt faces the Islamist threat internally as well as from outside infiltration, and these two threats are interlinked. Mubarak’s decision to erect a deeply embedded iron wall along the Egypt-Gaza border threatens to cut off the smuggling enterprise, but part of the motivation is also to prevent a deepening of links between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. The Brotherhood is the most powerful opposition group in Egypt. With an octogenarian president who has been in power for twenty eight years, the issue of Mubarak’s succession sensitive, and a cause for concern in Israel, too.

Cairo also fears an attack from Hezbollah, Iran’s other major non-state ally in the arena. The Egyptians are concerned about a possible retaliation for sentences handed down to 26 Hezbollah activists convicted of plotting terror activities against Egyptian targets.

Mixed signals

Despite a common desire to advance the peace process and tackle militant Islamist groups, points of friction surfaced in Israel-Egypt relations lately regarding regional security issues. First, ahead of the review conference for the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), taking place in New York throughout this month, Egypt has been holding talks with the US on a proposal to push for a nuclear-free Middle East. It wants to link this to the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme.  Israeli officials have said that Israel would support such a proposal once a comprehensive peace treaty has been established throughout the region. But Israel could not afford to give up its strict policy of nuclear ambiguity without ironclad security guarantees.

Israel is concerned to ensure that the conference is not distracted from Iran, which many in the international community view as the foremost proliferation and regional security threat. Israel’s Maariv newspaper reported that in his meeting with Mubarak on Monday, Netanyahu would be urging Egypt to “go down a gear” on their proposal for a nuclear-free Middle East, in order that they can work together to prevent a nuclear Iran from emerging.

A second area of friction has emerged since Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit’s trip to Lebanon on 24 April. Israel’s ambassador to Cairo, Yitzhak Levanon, protested a statement by Aboul Gheit in which he reportedly referred to Israel as an “enemy state”. The director of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry has said he was misunderstood. Aboul Gheit also expressed solidarity with Damascus during his visit.

It is important to bear in mind the broader context of Aboul Gheit’s visit to Beirut. Egypt, as the largest Arab state, wants to play a leadership role in smoothing out conflicts and tensions in the region, which tend to create opportunities for Iran to spread its influence. Aboul Gheit has said that Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri is “panicked” that Israel will target Lebanon in order to confront Hezbollah’s acquisition of advanced weapons.

For its part, Israel has no desire fight another war to its north, as it felt compelled to do in the summer of 2006. It is to avoid a future conflict that Israel wants its international partners, including Egypt, to pressure Damascus to prevent the flow of weapons to Hezbollah.

Underlying shared interests

Despite moments of tension, Israel and Egypt have clear and overriding common interests and similar perceptions of regional threats in Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. Since September 2008, when Hezbollah is believed to have first begun trying to carry out terrorist activities on Egyptian soil, Israeli and Egyptian intelligence services have been working together to prevent kidnappings and attacks by Lebanese and Palestinian militants. In relation to the threat of a Palestinian break out, which led Egypt to send reinforcements to Sinai last week, a high ranking Egyptian official refused to disclose the source of information obtained, but did acknowledge “close cooperation” with Israel.

Speaking to an audience at Tel Aviv University last week, Egyptian Ambassador to Israel Yasser Reda referred to both the Iranian and broader terror threat, remarking that “We are all against radicals, both countries and groups.”

Conclusion

It is a challenging balancing act for Egypt to both maintain a leading role in the Arab world and one of only two Arab states at peace with Israel. This can lead to disagreements and policy differences from time to time. Furthermore, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict casts a constant shadow on the relationship. However, the common interest of Egypt and Israel in a moderate, stable and secure region far outweighs their differences. The regular visits of Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials to Cairo are testimony to the importance of the relationship for both sides. Both Egypt and Israel see a clear threat in the anti-Western regime in Tehran and the militant Islamist groups it sponsors, especially Hezbollah and Hamas, all of which seek to undermine the peace process they are seeking to pursue.