BICOM

Key Points

• Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit has been held hostage by Hamas in the Gaza Strip since he was captured three years ago. Just as there is ambiguity about a prospective prisoner exchange, there have been mixed signs about progress towards a Cairo-brokered reconciliation of rival Palestinian groups.
• Fatah and Hamas remain at odds both with one another and among themselves, and whilst it would be premature to predict how things play out, Shalit’s release could be an indirect factor in making even a short-term national unity deal work.
• Recent speculation about Shalit’s imminent release has been just that. The parties appeared close to reaching a deal towards the end of former prime minister Ehud Olmert’s premiership, but none transpired. Since then, no new prisoner exchange deal appears to have been mediated, but wider diplomatic developments could have an impact.
• Washington is playing a more active role, perhaps sensing an opportunity to begin the deeper level of engagement to which it is committed. US President Barack Obama has expressed his personal determination to pursue a comprehensive regional peace, and progress on these deals would strengthen the foundations for renewed peace talks.

Introduction

Last Thursday, 25 June, marked three years since IDF Corporal Gilad Shalit was kidnapped by Palestinian militants in a cross-border raid from the Gaza Strip into Israel.  Amid conflicting news reports published last week, there has been a flurry of media speculation about his ‘imminent’ release to Egypt as part of a wider deal.  As the Obama administration intensifies its role in the region, the diplomatic gears do appear to be shifting, but an immediate breakthrough would still surprise many.  Similar rumours of a deal were aired in the closing days of former Israeli prime minister Olmert’s government, but they did not materialise.  Nonetheless, a window of opportunity exists.  Cairo has been mediating negotiations aimed at reconciling rival Palestinian factions for some time, and whilst it would be premature to predict how things will play out, Shalit’s return would indirectly improve the chances of even a short-term national unity deal sticking.  This document sets out the latest developments in the context of the main players’ key interests.

Developments concerning Gilad Shalit

Speculation that Gilad Shalit is to be released was sparked by Palestinian online media, including a website affiliated with the Islamic Jihad.[i]  Anonymous European diplomatic sources have also been cited.[ii]  Rumours were further fuelled by a rise in the number of Egyptian security agents observed on the Gaza-Sinai border in Rafah, through which it is assumed that Shalit would be transported.[iii]  Coinciding with several mass rallies held in Israel to mark the third anniversary since Shalit’s capture, the story rapidly snowballed.  It was downplayed or dismissed by both the Israeli government and the Hamas leadership.

A scenario in which Shalit would be transferred to Egyptian intelligence has been discussed in the past, as part of Cairo-brokered efforts to orchestrate a sequential prisoner exchange.  Last week’s reports have suggested that it emanates from a classified new US initiative, involving close coordination with Egypt and the EU, designed to help foster Palestinian reconciliation and a reopening of border crossings – a key policy objective for Hamas.[iv]  The Obama administration may feel that it has greater room for manoeuvre following the victory for pro-Western forces in Lebanon’s elections and the debacle surrounding Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election.  But it is operating discreetly, in part not to be seen to be undermining Egyptian efforts.  The overall idea is to create an atmosphere conducive to the comprehensive regional peace talks which Washington is determined to pursue.

Throughout the last three years, both Israel and Hamas have continually held each other culpable for the ongoing deadlock in negotiations.  Among Hamas’s demands in exchange for Shalit’s release is the discharge of some 450 Palestinian prisoners.  They maintain that their position remains unchanged.[v]  Former Israeli PM Olmert also made clear his ‘red lines’ that Israel would not cross – in other words freeing some of the convicted killers of Israeli civilians.[vi]  Despite the change of leadership in Israel, one senior Egyptian told Haaretz recently that Hamas and Egypt are operating on the assumption that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to bargain for less than the 325 prisoners that his predecessor agreed to.[vii]  Netanyahu has appointed former Mossad agent Hagai Hadas to coordinate efforts to bring Shalit home, but no significant progress was reported during the transition and Hadas’s team is not yet fully engaged.  Hence, a breakthrough at this juncture would be unexpected.[viii]

Another bone of contention is the destination of the most dangerous prisoners released in a deal.  Hamas have reportedly consented to some prisoner deportations, either from the West Bank to Gaza or from the Palestinian territories to foreign states.  Neither Israel nor the Palestinian Authority wants Hamas militants to be empowered to disrupt the relative calm that they and the international community have achieved in the West Bank.  The principle of deportation is not new to the discourse, but the possibility that Hamas have yielded on the number or identity of deportees may have fuelled the speculation about a deal being imminent.

Turning to Palestinian reconciliation

In parallel with talk of a prisoner swap, Cairo has been leading efforts to forge a deal between the main rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas.  The aim is to reach a new understanding that would break the logjam in their domestic politics and enable Palestinian presidential and legislative council elections to take place in January 2010.  It may entail the establishment of some type of joint coordinating committee for Gaza as a means of relieving some of the tension on the ground, although the deep power struggle will remain difficult to suppress.[ix]  Still, Egypt has been applying pressure on both sides to agree terms at the next round of talks, scheduled for 7 July.

Just as there is ambiguity about a prospective prisoner exchange, there have been mixed signs about progress towards Palestinian reconciliation.  On the one hand, Israel’s release last week, as scheduled, of Palestinian Legislative Council speaker Abdul Aziz Dweik – a senior Hamas figure who was arrested on the day of Shalit’s capture – could help facilitate a possible deal between the rival groups.  He is perceived as the acceptable face of Hamas for many in Fatah.  It is noteworthy, given the degree of hostility between the factions, that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas placed a telephone call to Dweik shortly after his release.[x]

Furthermore, a recent speech by Damascus-based Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal was shelved under pressure from Abbas, who travelled to Syria to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.[xi] Egyptian intelligence director Omar Suleiman also reportedly discussed this with Meshaal.[xii]  Whether Meshaal was warned against making any statement that would scupper a deal or whether he was not prepared to omit the item from his address, this seems to indicate greater cooperation between the rival parties than has been the norm.  Since Iran has become preoccupied by domestic problems, Syria has been stepping up its role in the Palestinian arena.  Both the US and Egypt are keen for Syria to use its leverage over Hamas.[xiii]

But despite verbal commitments by both Fatah and Hamas to try to facilitate an atmosphere of calm ahead of the Cairo talks, tensions are ongoing.  A dispute resurfaced last week over the issue of politically-motivated arrests.  The Palestinian news agency Ma’an reported that PA forces had carried out ‘a frenzy of arrests’ in the West Bank, detaining the Hamas-aligned deputy mayor of Nablus, Dr. Hafith Shahin, and rounding up over 100 Hamas affiliates in a series of raids over a 24-hour period.[xiv]   Hamas’s political leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, subsequently said that he was ‘not optimistic regarding the prospects of national dialogue [with Fatah].’[xv]  Fatah and Hamas remain at odds both with one another and among themselves, and whether they will find sufficient consensus for a new national unity government which at least papers over some of their differences temporarily, still remains uncertain.

A web of interlocking interests

Whether a prisoner swap or Palestinian unity would serve as a catalyst for the other is also far from assured.  But there does seem to be a confluence of interests between the main parties.  Both Israel’s and Egypt’s overriding interest since Hamas consolidated its power in Gaza has been to contain the Iranian-backed threat in their backyard.  The Mubarak regime has further cause for concern owing to Hamas’s strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition force in Egyptian politics.  Of course, Fatah, too, fear Hamas not only because of their propensity for violence but due to their proven success at the polls.  Egypt has been the chief mediator between the Palestinians for some time, and so its pride is clearly at stake.  It has been persistent with regards to the national unity talks, and seems determined to finalise a deal on 7 July.  However, for such a deal to be acceptable to Israel, it would have to include Shalit’s release.

Hamas stand to gain because they are under considerable pressure both to obtain the release of Palestinian prisoners and to begin reconstruction in Gaza following the conflict with Israel at the turn of the year.  That conflagration did not succeed in persuading Egypt to permanently reopen the Rafah border or Israel to permanently reopen its terminals, requirements for substantial aid, reconstruction materials and trade flow through the crossings.[xvi]  Israel has been unwilling to do so whilst Shalit remains in captivity, and neither state wants to bolster Hamas at the expense of their partners in the PA.  A unity government is seen as a potential means of enabling the West Bank-based Palestinian government to get some of the credit if the crossings are reopened.  Fatah want to demonstrate that only they can really deliver improvements on the ground to Palestinian society, as they have begun doing in the West Bank.  Israel has supported this by easing restrictions on movement and access, and announced arrangements last week to further empower Palestinian security forces in four major West Bank cities.[xvii]

Conclusion

From an Israeli perspective, it is encouraging that Gilad Shalit, who has dual Israeli and French citizenship, is not being forgotten by the international community.   In addition to other European leaders, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband raised concerns last week about the denial of his basic rights, such as Red Cross access, and reiterated UK calls for his ‘immediate, unconditional and safe release.’[xviii]  Still, more headway needs to be made in the negotiations before anyone can be optimistic about his return.   Egyptian Major General Mohamed Ibrahim headed a security delegation to Tel Aviv last week, and there are meetings planned in Cairo this week.[xix]  Strategically, Shalit’s ongoing captivity by Hamas and continued Palestinian fragmentation undermine efforts to launch a wider regional peace process from the outset.   Neither a prisoner exchange nor a deal between Fatah and Hamas would offer a smooth ride on the road to peace, but both could be fundamental for substantive diplomatic progress.

 

---

^[i] Amos Harel, Barak Ravid and Avi Issacharoff, ‘Netanyahu may resume talks with Hamas for Shalit deal’, Haaretz, 25 June 2009.

[ii] Akiva Eldar, ‘Europeans: Gilad Shalit transfer to Egypt imminent’, Haaretz, 25 June 2009.

^[iii] ‘Together reveal: hours separating the arrival of Hamas to Cairo’, Ma’an News Agency, 23 June 2009.

^[iv] Akiva Eldar and Avi Issacharoff and AP, ‘New U.S. initiative to free Shalit underway’, Haaretz, 26 June 2009; Akiva Eldar, ‘U.S., EU seek to include Hamas in peace process’, Haaretz, 28 June 2009.

^[v] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also discussed it in meetings with other European leaders.  ‘Miliband: UK calls for Gilad Shalit’s immediate, unconditional, and safe release’, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, 25 June 2009.  Tovah Lazaroff, ‘Gilad Schalit is begging for his life’, The Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2009.

[vi] Barak Ravid, Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff and Reuters, ‘Hamas demands for Shalit are unacceptable’, Haaretz, 17 March 2009.

^[vii] Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, ‘Hamas fears Shalit deal would be seen as surrender’, Haaretz, 25 June 2009.

[viii] Some local commentators have observed a more discreet negotiating culture from the outset of the new Israeli administration.  Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, ‘Hamas fears Shalit deal would be seen as surrender’, Haaretz, 25 June 2009.

[ix] For further details, see BICOM Analysis, 6 May 2009 and 18 May 2009.

^[x] Notably, to try and undermine Abbas’s authority, which Hamas has rejected since January, Hamas has called for Dweik to be treated as acting president. ‘Hamas Says Dweik “Real President” until Elections are Held’, Al Manar Television, 25 June 2009; Khaled Abu Toameh, ‘Dweik is real Palestinian president’, The Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2009.

^[xi] ‘Abbas talks Palestinian unity with Syria’s Assad’, Reuters, 20 June 2009.

[xii] Yisrael Hayom, 21 June 2009.

^[xiii] These factors may have influenced the timing of Washington’s decision to reappoint a US ambassador to Damascus after a four-year hiatus.  See also ‘Statement by Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Senator George Mitchell’, Embassy of the United States of America in Damascus, 13 June 2009; ‘The road to Damascus’, Economist Intelligence Unit, 26 June 2009.

^[xiv] ‘Factional arrests dim unity prospects’, Ma’an News Agency, 24 June 2009.

^[xv] Khaled Abu Toameh, ‘Dweik is real Palestinian president’, The Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2009.

^[xvi] Tovah Lazaroff, ‘Gilad Schalit is begging for his life’, The Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2009.

[xvii] Communiqué: ‘Palestinian security forces to operate freely in major Palestinian cities’, IDF Spokesperson, 25 June 2009.

[xviii] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also discussed it in meetings with other European leaders.  ‘Miliband: UK calls for Gilad Shalit’s immediate, unconditional, and safe release’, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, 25 June 2009.  Tovah Lazaroff, ‘Gilad Schalit is begging for his life’, The Jerusalem Post, 25 June 2009.

^[xix] ‘Together reveal: hours separating the arrival of Hamas to Cairo’, Ma’an News Agency, 23 June 2009.