BICOM

Key Points

• PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has not yet given an official response on the US proposal of ‘proximity talks’ between the sides. The PA has pledged to give an answer on this question on Thursday.

• Abbas and those around him believe that ‘backing down’ from insistence on a complete settlement freeze before direct negotiations can re-commence will have a detrimental effect on the PA’s public standing among the Palestinians. 

• The West Bank is enjoying stability and growth with Hamas held in check. Meanwhile, the lack of the peace process is building international pressure on Israel. Furthermore, the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip would reject any return to negotiations and seek to depict it as a ‘sell-out’ by the PA. These factors, along with a belief in the PA leadership that talks will not bear fruit, are disincentives for the PA leadership to enter talks.

• These factors notwithstanding, the ongoing maintenance of the status quo is not in the long term interests of either the Fatah dominated PA or Israel. Abbas has made his policy the pursuit of national goals through negotiation with Israel and the international community. Without a process, his own platform, and his relations with the international community, are undermined. Abbas is coming under increasing pressure from the US and Egypt among others to enter into a negotiating process.

Introduction

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas reiterated this week his current refusal to resume direct negotiations with Israel. The Palestinian position is that Israel must declare a complete moratorium on settlement activity in the West Bank and East Jerusalem for three moths in order for negotiations to re-commence. Abbas’s latest reiteration of this position comes in the wake of the PA leader’s reported clash with Egypt over his refusal to soften the demand for a complete settlement freeze as a condition for talks. PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has pledged to give an answer on Thursday to the US proposal of ‘proximity talks’ between the sides.

Abbas’s stance is leading to a shake-up in Arab diplomacy with regard to the Palestinian issue. Egypt is understood to be angry and frustrated with the PA’s position, and is seeking, together with the US, to induce Abbas to agree, if not to direct negotiations, at least to the US proposal of ‘proximity talks.’ Abbas, meanwhile, was reported to have asked Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz to intervene in order to find a way out from the Egyptian pressure.

The Palestinian Authority’s stance on negotiations

PA Chairman Abbas and those around him believe that for Abbas to be seen as ‘backing down’ from insistence on a complete settlement freeze before negotiations can re-commence would have a very detrimental effect on his public standing among the Palestinian public. There is little optimism within the Palestinian camp that a negotiating process with the current Israeli government will lead to a successful outcome. Their widespread belief is that Israel wants negotiations but have no intention of bringing them to a successful conclusion. Given the current state of Palestinian politics, the PA leadership fears that it will be branded by its opponents as a dupe of the US and Israel if it enters into talks on this basis.

The Palestinian side are said to be unhappy with the parameters for the negotiations as outlined by Secretary of State Clinton following the announcement of the Israeli ten month moratorium on construction in the settlements. They were dissatisfied with her assertion that any agreement will ‘reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements.’ According to Palestinian sources, Abbas is seeking commitments from the US on the issue of final borders and land swaps before talks commence.

In addition to the substantive issues that the PA has with the parameters and prior requirements for a return to negotiations, a number of broader reasons may be discerned for their reluctance to renew talks. 

Firstly, the present situation on the West Bank is stable. With restrictions on movement in the West Bank greatly reduced, the Palestinians are experiencing economic growth. Security stability and the successful deployment of newly trained Palestinian security forces have laid the groundwork for the very visible improvement in daily life for the Palestinians over the last 18 months. With the help of the new security forces, the PA has successfully suppressed activity by the rival Hamas movement in the West Bank. For as long as the status quo holds, there is no threat to PA control of the area. Again, since Palestinian reconciliation talks have broken down, new elections are not on the horizon. As such, there is no immediate sense of urgency to renew talks, particularly since the PA leadership is convinced that such talks will not bear fruit.

It is worth noting in this regard that for the PA, the absence of negotiations does not mean a freeze in the political situation. Rather, the PA leadership pays close attention to the difficulties faced by Israel in international forums, particularly following Operation Cast Lead and the issuing of the Goldstone Report. Israel fears that the PA prefers to wait, assuming that international pressure will continues to grow on Israel, thereby strengthening their position.

In addition, the failure of the Palestinians to achieve reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas acts as a further disincentive to returning to negotiations. The Hamas regime in Gaza would undoubtedly seek to paint any renewed negotiations as representing a sell-out of the Palestinian interest, and would declare that it would not regard itself as bound by any agreement signed by the Palestinian Authority. The PA is in any case vulnerable to charges of ‘collaboration’ with the enemy, given the anti-Israeli and anti-American tilt of Palestinian public opinion. In the absence of any current ability to either tempt or coerce Hamas to abandon its independent rule in Gaza, the PA prefers not to make itself vulnerable to Hamas criticism. The PA also has no desire to make obvious the enduring schism in Palestinian politics, which it still hopes to resolve. 

However, whilst there are strong reasons for Abbas to avoid a return to negotiations, there is strong countervailing pressure for him to compromise on his stance. Palestinian analysts note that ongoing maintenance of the status quo is not in the long term interests of Fatah and the Palestinian secular nationalist camp. Abbas has made his policy the pursuit of national goals through negotiation with Israel and the international community. Without a peace process, his own platform, and his relations with the international community, is ultimately undermined.

There is evidence that the growing international pressure is having an impact on Abbas. It was reported last week that Abbas is seeking Saudi mediation in order to resolve the current tense relations with Egypt which the Palestinian stance on negotiations has caused.

The latest US proposal is for indirect talks, meaning that the US would mediate between the sides, which would proceed to direct contacts between junior officials if progress warranted this. Abbas has said that he will respond by Thursday to the US proposal.

Conclusion

It is easy to understand the difficulties faced by Mahmoud Abbas. To an extent he has been a casualty of the initial over ambition of the current US Administration on the Israeli-Palestinian track. Nevertheless, progress between Israelis and Palestinians can only come about as a result of direct talks, or failing that, proximity talks. The PA Chairman is no doubt correct that his standing could suffer if he is seen to enter talks which would then founder. But the status quo is not indefinitely sustainable in the absence of a political process. In spite of the PA’s wishes, the international community is not going to force Israel to conform to the entirety of the Palestinian negotiating position as a precondition for restarting talks. As such, it is in the shared interest of Israel and the PA, to find a way toward at least indirect negotiations in the near future.