BICOM

This briefing has 4 sections. Click on a heading to jump to the section.

Contents

1.      Summary

2.      The Iranian nuclear weapons programme

3.      Iranian threats to Western interests and regional stability

4.      The direct threat posed by Iran to Israel

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1.      Summary

The evidence shows that Iran is developing nuclear weapons

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in November 2011 on the detail of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, after studying the evidence for several years.
• Iran has been repeatedly caught building major nuclear facilities in secret, in breach of its NPT obligations, and is subject to five UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to stop.
• Iran has passed up repeated opportunities to negotiate a solution with world powers, despite extensive offers of cooperation in civil nuclear power and other economic and political fields.
• US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta has said that Iran could build a bomb within a year of a decision to do so. Sanctions and covert military action have hindered but not stopped the programme.

Iran poses a threat to Western interests and regional stability

• Iran has a violent anti-Western regional agenda which includes support for extremists, including those fighting British forces in Afghanistan.
• Iran has a strategic goal to attain hegemony over the Gulf, which is the source of a significant percentage of the world’s oil, threatening global oil markets and the UK economy.
• Acquisition of nuclear weapons will enhance Iran’s capacity to promote this agenda, enabling it to threaten its pro-Western Arab neighbours and, with its long range missiles, Europe directly.
• If Iran succeeds in weaponising its nuclear programme it would lead to a Middle East arms race, as Arab states would seek to obtain weapons to deter Tehran.

Iran poses a direct threat to Israel’s security

• If Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Israel would be in the shadow of a power which openly called for its destruction and had the theoretical capacity to carry it out.
• Iran is the leader of a regional alliance opposed to Israel’s existence, Palestinian moderates, and to the peace process. It extensively arms and funds armed extremists on Israel’s borders and directly attacks Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
• Even assuming Iran did not intend to use nuclear weapons against Israel, an Iranian nuclear weapon would be likely to further embolden them in their violent actions against Israel.
• Iran’s strategic alliances with radical groups and rouge states in the region creates the possibility that Iran might proliferate nuclear materials or technology to non-state actors, allowing Iran the potential to deploy a nuclear weapon against Israel deniably.
• The hostility between Iran and Israel, and the lack of direct communication channels, increase the chances of crises born out of miscalculation, and would create permanent uncertainty.

2.      The Iranian nuclear weapons programme

Key points

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in November 2011 on the detail of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, after studying the evidence for several years.
• Iran has been repeatedly caught building major nuclear facilities in secret, in breach of its NPT obligations, and is subject to five UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to stop.
• Iran has passed up repeated opportunities to negotiate a solution with world powers, despite extensive offers of cooperation in civil nuclear power and other economic and political fields.
• US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta has said that Iran could build in a year from a decision to do so. Sanctions and covert military action have hindered but not stopped the programme.

How is it known that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme?

• Iran’s efforts to produce nuclear weapons dates back to the 1970s, before the Islamic revolution. Iran intensified its efforts with the assistance of various countries in the 1980s, particularly following its experiences in the Iran-Iraq War. Iran always claimed its programme was for civilian purposes, but international suspicions about Iran’s activities were first voiced in the 1990s.
• In 2002, Iranian opposition groups, possibly with the help of Western intelligence agencies, disclosed the existence of several very major nuclear sites which Iran had kept hidden from the IAEA, in direct contravention of its international commitments. The most significant were Natanz, where Iran was preparing to enrich uranium that can be used for civilian nuclear fuel or for making weapons grade material, and Arak, where Iran was building a heavy water reactor that could produce weapons grade plutonium. Neither of these are necessary for the development of Iran’s civil nuclear power programme. Iran has not provided any explanation as to why it built secret nuclear facilities that are not required for its civilian programme. It subsequently emerged that through the 1980s and 1990s, Iran had been buying materials and designs for various nuclear facilities in secret and in contravention of its NPT commitments.
• In 2009, Britain, France and the US announced the discovery of another secret uranium enrichment facility hidden under a mountain at Fordow near Qom. It is too small to produce civilian fuel but big enough for turning low-enriched uranium into weapons grade uranium.
• Over the last few years, the IAEA has received mounting evidence from various intelligence agencies indicating that Iran has been secretly developing technologies for nuclear triggers and warhead designs. After studying the material for several years, the IAEA issued a report in November 2011 setting out in detail the structure of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, and concluding that evidence that Iran’s was developing nuclear weapons was ‘credible’. The report showed Iran had a structured programme until the end of 2003, and there was evidence that activities were ongoing.
• In defiance of several binding resolutions and mounting sanctions, Iran continues to expand its enrichment activities and to enrich at levels closer to weapons grade. It is also continuing with the construction of the Arak reactor.
• In August 2010 Iran announced its intention to build ten more enrichment facilities, fuelling suspicion that Iran may have more secret facilities.
• Iran has repeatedly refused to allow the IAEA to access the Parchin military base, where it is believed to have been working on nuclear triggers.
• Whilst Iran may not yet have pieced all the elements of its weapons programme together, it is preparing to do so. In February 2012 William Hague told the Commons, “It is our assessment and that of our allies that Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons… and is steadily developing the capability to produce such weapons should it choose to do so.”
• Iran is also developing long range missiles which could carry nuclear warheads. David Cameron warned in March 2012 that Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles.

How has Iran breached its international obligations?

• In September 2005, the IAEA declared Iran to be non-compliant with its NPT commitments, stating that, “as deplored by the Board… Iran’s policy of concealment has resulted in many breaches of its obligation to comply with its Safeguards Agreement.”
• In 2006 Iran stopped implementing the terms of the Additional Protocol to the NPT, which it had signed in 2003 after the discovery of its secret facilities, and which was supposed to give IAEA inspectors greater access to Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Iran has rejected five binding UN Security Council resolutionsrequiring Iran to cease enrichment, reprocessing and heavy water related activities and to cooperate with the IAEA.

What opportunities has Iran had to resolve the issue peacefully?

• The five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Britain, the US, France, Russia and China) and Germany, known collectively as the P5+1, have made repeated offers of incentives to Iran in return for Iranian compliance with UNSC resolutions. In meetings in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow between March and June 2012, Iran rejected a deal from the P5+1 to stop its higher enrichment programme in return for a pause on sanctions and other gestures.
• In late 2009 Iran was offered a deal by the IAEA, backed by the US, Russia and France, to swap its low enriched uranium for fuel rods, as a confidence building measure to make room for talks. After appearing to accept the deal Iran then weakened the terms, leading to its collapse.
• In 2006 and 2008 the P5+1 offered wide ranging cooperation in economic, political and technological fields.

How close is Iran to a bomb?

• US defence secretary Leon Panetta has said that Iran could build a bomb within a year of a decision to do so. Sanctions and covert action have hindered but not stopped the programme. Iran’s strategy appears to be to develop all the technologies and materials to build a nuclear arsenal, so that it is able to do so quickly when its leadership judges the time is right.
• Iran already has enough low enriched uranium for five bombs, if further enriched. It has developed designs for warheads and has missiles capable of carrying a warhead.
• The Qom facility enables Iran to enrich uranium to weapons grade with immunity from airstrikes.

Key sites

•  Ishfahan: Iranian nuclear research facility which includes a plant which processes uranium into gas form for feeding into centrifuges for enrichment and a facility to create fuel rods.
• Natanz: A huge, underground facility for enriching uranium, built illegally in secret and discovered in 2002. It includes two underground enrichment halls with a combined size of ten football pitches. It has produced enough low enriched uranium to produce four nuclear bombs.
• Arak: A heavy water production plant and nuclear reactor, capable of producing weapons grade plutonium, built illegally in secret and discovered in 2002.
• Fordow: A smaller enrichment facility built illegally and in secret within a military base under a mountain close to Qom and discovered in 2009. It is too small for producing civilian fuel but would enable Iran to quickly turn low enriched uranium into weapons grade material.
• Parchin: A military site where the Iran has tested explosives believed to be related to nuclear weapons. Iran has refused the IAEA access, and the IAEA believes work to be ongoing.

3.      Iranian threats to Western interests and regional stability

Key points

• Iran has a violent anti-Western regional agenda which includes support for extremists, including those fighting British forces in Afghanistan.
• Iran has a strategic goal to attain hegemony over the Gulf, which is the source of a significant percentage of the world’s oil, threatening global oil markets and the UK economy.
• Acquisition of nuclear weapons will enhance Iran’s capacity to promote this agenda, enabling it to threaten its pro-Western Arab neighbours and, with its long range missiles, Europe directly.
• If Iran succeeds in weaponising its nuclear programme it would lead to a Middle East arms race, as Arab states would seek to obtain weapons to deter Tehran.

What is Iran’s agenda in the region?

• The Islamic republic was founded in 1979 on the radical Islamist ideology of Ayatollah Khomeini, which considers Western liberal democracy and capitalism to be failed concepts, regards the U.S. and its allies as its principal enemy, driven by imperialistic ambitions, and which believes in exporting the ideals of the Islamic Revolution.
• The Iranian regime regards Britain as the “little Satan”, as a close ally of the U.S. and the Arab Gulf states, and as a former imperial power in the region. At times Iran has treated Britain with even greater scorn than the U.S. At the end of 2011 the regime orchestrated theransacking of the British embassy in Tehran by a mob.
• Over time, Iran’s strategy has developed to focus on tactical regional objectives in the region. These include challenging Israel’s existence through active support for armed extremist groups on Israel’s borders, supporting the emergence of pro-Iranian governments in Iraq and Lebanon; and building Gulf Arab support for Iran’s interests.
• Iran has always perceived itself to be the natural hegemonic power in the Gulf, which has two thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves. As a Persian, Shia country, it dwarfs most of its Arab, Sunni majority, and Western-allied neighbours in size and population. Iran would like to see its smaller Arab neighbours expel U.S. military forces based on their territory and accept Iranian leadership.
• The Arab Gulf States are fearful of Iran. Apart from sharp divisions based on confessional and ethnic identities, the Arab sheikhdoms fear Iranian intentions to subvert their regimes through support for radical Islamist revolutionaries. These states are important partners for the UK in trade, ensuring stability of global oil supplies, and in counter-terrorism.
• The US State Department regards Iran as “the most active state sponsor of terrorism”. Tehran supports extremist groups in Lebanon, Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Afghanistan and is seeking to build its influence through proxies or allied organisations. It has been actively involved in arming and supporting violent groups fighting British forces in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Tehran is also helping the Assad in Syria in its battle against internal opposition.
• Although recent sanctions by the US and the EU are reducing the West’s dependence on Iranian oil, Tehran can still threaten Western interests by attempting to influence oil markets.  Oil prices are dependent upon supply, demand and speculation and Iran – by threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz – could quickly spike oil prices and threaten European economic recovery.

How will nuclear arms strengthen Iran against the West?

• Acquisition of nuclear weapons would shift the balance of power in the region in Iran’s favour, possibly enabling Iran to gain control of its neighbours energy resources, and making other states in the region more likely to accommodate them.
• After acquiring nuclear-weapon status, Iran would be able to expand its support to rogue states and terrorist organisations with relative impunity. An Iran in possession of a nuclear deterrent would limit Israeli and Western freedom to intervene to defend itself or it allies.
• Iran with a nuclear bomb would make the Middle East a more dangerous place, creating the potential for miscalculation and sudden escalation between Iran and Israel.  Moreover, a conflict between Israel and terrorist groups operating under the nuclear umbrella of Iran could quickly and dangerously escalate. Iran is unstable and unpredictable with a fractured regime and a lack of clear accountability and government controls.
• A nuclear Iran would also give a strategic boost to its radical allies, including Syria, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, that wish to impede Israeli-Palestinian peace process and counter Western influence in the region. Having a nuclear weapon would give these groups and Iran greater cover for their aggression and coercive diplomacy.

How would Iran create a proliferation and instability risk?

• Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons could trigger a Middle East arms race, as Arab states would seek to obtain weapons to deter Tehran.
• The state most likely to swiftly respond by seeking nuclear weapons is Saudi Arabia, with Pakistan a potential source of technology. Last year Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, who has served as Saudi intelligence chief and as ambassador to the United States, said that the Kingdom might consider producing nuclear weapons if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon.
• There is also the significant risk that Iran may share nuclear technology with others, as Pakistan and North Korea have, or even to provide nuclear materials to armed groups such as Hezbollah.
• If the international non-proliferation regime were violated so flagrantly, in the face of multiple UN Security Council Resolutions and in the face of such clear U.S. and European opposition, its credibility would be dealt a major blow.

4.      The direct threat posed by Iran to Israel

Key points

• If Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Israel would be in the shadow of a power which openly called for its destruction and had the theoretical capacity to carry it out.
• Iran is the leader of a regional alliance opposed to Israel’s existence, Palestinian moderates, and to the peace process. It extensively arms and funds armed extremists on Israel’s borders and directly attacks Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
• Even assuming Iran did not intend to use nuclear weapons against Israel, an Iranian nuclear weapon would be likely to further embolden them in their violent actions against Israel.
• Iran’s strategic alliances with radical groups and rouge states in the region creates the possibility that Iran might proliferate nuclear materials or technology to non-state actors, allowing Iran the potential to deploy a nuclear weapon against Israel deniably.
• The hostility between Iran and Israel, and the lack of direct communication channels, increase the chances of crises born out of miscalculation, and would create permanent uncertainty.

How has Iran threatened Israel?

• President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly demonises the State of Israel and has called for it to be “erased from the page of time.” He termed Zionists “the most detested people in all humanity” and called the extermination of six million Jews during World War II “a myth”. These comments are part of a wider pattern of rhetoric against Israel by regime leaders.

How does Iran pose a direct threat to Israeli security?

• Iran actively opposes Israel, Palestinian moderates, and the Middle East peace process, and stands against any normalisation of relations between Israel and other states in the region. It positions itself in the region as the leader of radical anti-Western and anti-Israel forces, supporting in particular Syria, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and armed Palestinian groups in Gaza and the Sinai.
• Iran and its allies have a long record of attacking Israeli and Jewish targets around the world. In February 2012, Iranian agents were believed responsible for attacks on Israeli diplomats in Georgia, Thailand and India. Iran is believed responsible for the 1992 terrorist attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires and on the Argentine Jewish communal building in 1994. The bombings killed 116 and injured over 350.
• Iran extensively arms, trains and supports armed groups that operate against Israel and against Jewish and Israeli targets around the globe.
• Hezbollah
• Since it was established by Iran in the early 1980s, Hezbollah, a radical Lebanese Shiite organisation, has been ideologically committed to the Iranian Islamic revolution and its violent methods. Hezbollah receives military and financial backing from Iran and guidance from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
• Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of short and medium range rockets, which was used indiscriminately against Israeli civilians during the 2006 Second Lebanon War,  is supplied directly from Iranian army stocks. Other advanced weaponry used during the Second Lebanon war, including the Iranian C-208 anti-naval missile, advanced anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft systems, also came from Iran. Hezbollah fired close to 4000 rockets at Israel during the war, killing 44 Israeli civilians injuring more than 1400. It has since greatly expanded the size and range of its arsenal to an estimated 40,000-50,000 rockets.
• Hezbollah has become the dominant political force in Lebanon, with independent armed forces and communication networks beyond the control of formal Lebanese institutions. In 2011 Hezbollah gained substantial control over Lebanon’s coalition government.
• Palestinian armed groups
• Iran arms and funds Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip, to create a constant terror threat on Israel’s southern border.
• Weapons, including hundreds of 122mm Grad rockets, with ranges of 20-40 km, and advanced anti-tank missiles are smuggled from Iran into the Gaza Strip through the Egyptian controlled Sinai Peninsula and cross-border tunnels.
• Iran provides armed groups in Gaza with technological knowhow to build Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
• Iran provides training for hundreds of operatives from Palestinian armed groups either in Iran or elsewhere in the Arab world.
• Weapon smuggling
• Iran supplies armed groups in gross violation of international law and UN Security Council resolutions. Some of the arms shipments caught in recent years include:
• The Victoria cargo vessel, captured by the Israel Navy In March 2011 carrying 40 tonnes of advanced weaponry, including anti-ship missiles from Iran to Gaza.
• The Francop captured by the Israeli navy in November 2009, seized en route from Iran to the Syrian port of Latakia, containing thousands of medium-range 107 and 122-mm rockets (Katyushas), armour-piercing artillery, mortar bombs, hand grenades, and ammunition for Kalashnikov rifles destined for Hezbollah.
• The Karine A, captured by the Israeli navy in January 2002 in the Red Sea found to be carrying 50 tonnes of weapons from Iran and Hezbollah to the Palestinian Authority under Yasser Arafat. The shipment included short-range Katyusha rockets, anti-tank missiles, and high explosives.

How would nuclear weapons increase the threat Iran poses to Israel?

• If Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Israel would be in the shadow of a power which openly called for its destruction, and would have the theoretical capacity to carry it out. Analysts debate whether Iran would every use a nuclear weapon against Israel, but for Israel, any possibility of an Iranian nuclear strike, however remote, constitutes an unbearable threat. As a small country with its urban centres and industry highly concentrated, much of Israel’s population and economic capacity could be affected by a single nuclear strike.
• There is the chance of strategic crises born out of miscalculation.This risk is exacerbated by the hostility between Iran and Israel, the Israeli perception of an existential threat, and the lack of any direct and credible communication channels between the two.
• An Iranian nuclear weapon would be likely to further embolden them in their violent actions against Israel and their support for armed extremists on Israel’s borders.
• Iran could in the future provide nuclear weapons to proxies. This would potentially be a way for Iran to use a nuclear device in a deniable manner.