BICOM

 

Key points

• Egypt, which borders both Gaza and Israel, and was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel in 1979, has in the past played an important role in brokering ceasefires between Israel and armed groups in the Gaza Strip.

• However, since the rise to power in Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is ideologically affiliated to the Hamas regime in Gaza, relations between Egypt and Israel have been very fraigle.

• It has been partly due to concern to avoid a further deterioration in the Egypt-Israel relationship that Israel has avoided a major military operation against armed groups in the Gaza Strip until now.

• Egypt has its own interests in reining in extremist groups, which also threaten its own security, and will be under considerable pressure from Western states to bring its influence to bear on Hamas. The current escalation will, therefore, be a test of how the new Egyptian rulers balance their ideological support for Hamas, and their practical interests in containing extremists and maintaining their role as power brokers.

What is the significance of the Egyptian Prime Ministerial visit?

• The visit of Egypt’s Prime Minister, Hisham Qandil, is an unprecedented move. He is only the second leading government official to visit Gaza since Hamas took control of the strip in 2007, with the first being the Emir of Qatar only last month. The visit is a remarkably bold show of solidarity with Hamas. The question following Qandil’s visit to Gaza is whether this action will also form part of a political effort by Egypt to broker a swift end to the fighting.

What was Egypt’s role before the Arab Spring?

• Egypt borders both Israel and the Gaza Strip and was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel in 1979. Under the Mubarak regime, which ended with the Arab Spring, Egypt and Israel enjoyed quiet cooperation on security issues relating to the sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula, which borders Israel, and the Gaza Strip. Both sides shared an interest in maintaining calm and containing the radical armed Islamist Hamas group, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007, as well as other smaller armed Islamist factions.

• Hamas was, until recently, closely linked to Iran, and Egypt considered Hamas a threat to its own security. Egypt frequently also played a role in brokering ceasefires between Israel and Hamas.

How has the situation changed under Egypt’s new Islamist rulers?

• Though the Israel-Egypt peace treaty remains intact, the situation between the two states has been transformed by the Arab Spring, which led to the collapse of the Mubarak regime and electoral victories for the Muslim Brotherhood in both parliamentary and presidential elections.

• The Muslim Brotherhood is rooted in an Islamist ideology that rejects the right of Israel to exist. Since the change of regime, Israel’s relations with Egypt have been extremely fragile, though Egypt did send a new ambassador to Israel last month. There remains contact between Israeli and Egyptian security forces, but it is much diminished from cooperation that existed in the past. Israel until recently had avoided a major military operation against armed groups in Gaza, in part, due to concern of further deteriorating its relationship with Egypt. Indeed, Egypt swiftly withdrew its recently appointed ambassador after the beginning of Israel’s current military operation on Wednesday.

• Hamas is itself a Palestinian offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and the two organisations share deep ideological roots. As the regime of President Bashar Assad in Syria continued its attempt to violently suppress protests, Hamas – whose external headquarters were in Damascus – became more distant from Iran and Syria, and more dependent on Egypt. In addition, the Arab Spring has energised Egyptian public opinion, which is supportive of the Palestinians and virulently hostile to Israel, and Egypt’s leaders have been concerned to show their fulsome support for Hamas during this current escalation.

• The Muslim Brotherhood has also called on President Mohammed Mursi to sever ties with Israel, and is organising mass street protests against Israel.

What is Egypt’s interest in restoring calm?

• Egypt has practical interest in containing armed extremist groups in the area and maintaining their role as power broker. Egypt has lost effective control of the Sinai Peninsula since the fall of Mubarak, and radical jihadist militants in Gaza have been coordinating with like-minded extremists in the Sinai – using the area as staging ground for terrorist activity. They have not only attacked Israel but Egyptian security forces and pipelines taking natural gas to Israel and Jordan.

• Egypt will also be under considerable pressure from the US and other Western governments to bring what influence they have on Hamas to bear, with the goal of stopping rocket attacks on Israel. Egypt, which is in dire economic straits, can ill afford to risk the support of the US, which provides it with $1.5bn in aid each year, and is backing Egypt’s request for a $4.8bn loan from the IMF. European powers have their own financial leverage too, having also pledged badly needed financial support to Egypt.

• Egypt has played a constructive role in other recent escalations, helping to broker truces, and Western powers will be hoping Cairo will once again play a constructive role on this occasion. Foreign Secretary William Hague no doubt had this in mind when yesterday he said, “I call on those in the region with influence over Hamas to use that influence to bring about an end to the attacks.” President Obama on Wednesday also spoke to Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi on the phone, and likely conveyed a similar message.

• This escalation for Egypt is, therefore, a test for the Muslim Brotherhood of how they balance their ideological inclinations to support Hamas and their practical interests, which aim to bring about a swift end to the firing of rockets at Israel.